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Join us today at our #AdobeMAX keynote, live at 9:30 a.m. PT with CEO Shantanu Narayen and SVP @DWadhwani: http://adobe.ly/AdobeNext
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I think we all have individual priorities in how we approach anything. Humans ... as far as I can tell ... RARELY do anything for "x" reason, it seems to always be a mish-mash. And frequently, not the ones we think we're doing "x" because of, but ... influenced by other things. And I've noted that we as a group (humans) have even more difficulty sorting out motivations in others.
After two of my three children were diagnosed as "on the Spectrum" ... one as Aspergers, the other "straight" Autism, and we began studying the stuff ... it soon became clear where this came from, even though we'd had no clue before. My father, myself, two of my three children. The eldest is 31, and a Lutheran pastor in the middle of North Dakota, the youngest 15, 6'2" tall and maybe 135 pounds (tall and SKINNY like my dad), plays soccer and is a straight-A student in regular high-school classes without assistance besides being an awesome cook and student of languages and history and science and ... of course ... computer games. A sweet and loving young man.
Not anyone NOT experienced in "spectrum" stuff would see me as say, Asperters ... I "seem" mostly normal, yet people ALWAYS get my motivations wrong. I'm pretty straight about what I see and feel ... and folks always seem to "detect" something ... off? ... in the way I come across and as they assume that basically no one actually says exactly what they mean to begin with, take the slightly "off" way I come across (sensed or felt, not really "seen") to their back-brain, they INSIST that my motivations on anything are something vastly different than what they are. Frustrating as Hades to deal with. But it's given me a good view of "normals" and how they think and perceive and rationalize through things.
And ... "normals" ... miss far more than they realize they do, in ANY communication. So my strong suggestion to those in this thread ... be aware you are probably operating on a lot of false assumptions, and further ... you probably don't have a clue which ones are false and which are even sort of mostly accurate. Just ... to the wise. Take "data" from what you see, put it in a nice matrix of boxes in your brain, and WAIT until you have vastly MORE data about something before charging in with your mind totally assured.
Is Adobe a good or evil or just mean-spirited company? What an odd thing to waste one's time on. Adobe is a group of people working on vastly different projects that mostly all are digitally based such as software to allow users to do something. Many of them are techy geeks who have NO life past writing the coolest code they can create, some are the dull but necessary clerical types that keep things flowing inside any human organization, some are "evangelists" to teach and tell about their stuff, and some take the info from everyone else and try and crystal-ball how to stay afloat if not improve their finances and take care of everybody they've got to pay salaries for.
In other words, like about any other group of people. The motivations that any particular person on any particular decision-train of that organization will be different than the motivations of everyone else on that decision-train. That's pure human nature. Over time, individual decision groups will float between being more similar with each other and less similar. People will agree on an action because of vastly different reasoning processes, and disagree on other actions even though the reasoning process there is nearly identical. That's being human.
Those in this thread who feel that Adobe's gone rogue because they chose a subscription model seem to insist on a view of both Adobe and those of us who have (for whatever varied reasons) accepted the new model enough to buy Adobe CC products. A very narrow view ... Adobe MUST be happy with dumping "a huge" part of it's user base so they must already know that in their wicked hearts, over the next couple years, they'll what ... triple the prices? ... to recoup all the money they "lost" by going to that model. It's simple economic fact and ANYONE who's not drinking kool-aid knows it.
Wrong, probably, on several counts. I work with several companies who have ALWAYS used a subscription basis for their software. And they don't have anywhere NEAR the user-base Adobe's got, they don't have a totally unique or nearly-so product, so why did they do so? Very simple: the cost of sales is way down with that model AND they don't have to maintain and spend time dealing with trying to get "shelf-space" and all that sort of thing. They can focus far more on product and service to their clients.
Are you so sure this wasn't a large factor in Adobe's decision?
And are you so sure that Adobe hasn't been able to achieve the same cost controls with this model the companies I deal with have been able to? Just asking, of course.
And even if they didn't achieve the total cost-control relative to their old model ... subscription-servicing of clients does allow for a smoother chain of progressions through product updates, not because Adobe says so, but because it seems every other company out there finds it so ... and if Adobe really wants to just focus on product and service to their user-base, why do they need the hassle of old-fashioned single-unit sales? I can see a motivation for simplicity of operation even in such a large organization. And I think at least some of the people involved in the decision to go subscription were influenced by that reasoning.
So to me, insisting that Adobe can ONLY have chosen this path because of the single motive of intending to screw their users financially in the near-future is absolutely contrary to probable human behavior. Could someone on their decision-group have that motive? Naturally. MUST all of them share that simple and single motive? Absurd. In fact, very, very unlikely.
Now ... is there a rational reason that those who question Adobe to the point of refusing to "go" to the Cloud could feel that way? Naturally. Cynicism and suspicion of other humans is often the wiser choice. Which is why I liked the Reagan administration's approach to dealing with treaties, and actually, not just to the Soviets by any means: "Trust, but verify!" So ... maintaining a healthy skepticism about Adobe or any other group over a period of time to get a better feel for their intent is not a bad thing. Nor unwise, either.
For me, and for this time ... I have access to far more programs now than I have chosed to use before, and the explanation I've seen some display over how those of us on the CC app-line are somehow paying far more than we would have before is absurd. I was paying nearly this much in years past, for TWO programs, Lr & Photoshop. Now, I've got what, seven? And don't use Illustrator and a couple other of the "big" ones yet. I added it up a few months back, in some discussion. I'd have been paying a bit over USD $1500/yr for the software I'm now using or will be adopting in the next couple months on the old pay-per-version model. Would NEVER have chosen to buy that much software, some for projects that would be nice to have but realisitcally we could make other things do sort of somehow.
I've got a couple photog friends who initially were mad as Hades about the CC model ... participated on the PPA boards and other places SCREAMING about how they were telling Adobe to shove it. But after seeing a few of us "bite" the apple, and um ... keep biting more ... they've re-aligned their thinking. And are using up CC apps like candy.
So I don't think the over-time drop of user-base is going to be anywhere near what the most savage Adobe-cynics are insisting will happen. And that will come against a drop in Adobe cost-structure and re-alignment of assets to servicing a sustained user-base.
Does this prove to me that Adobe HAS to have in mind they'll screw the users over with vastly higher fees? Of course not. Skeptics are welcome to sit outside and moan, of course, and I'll give them maybe a 10% chance of being sort of near correct as an outside possibility.
But looking over the high number of variables, the nature of humans, the history of subscription models, the Adobe user-base and the competition ... and their IS competition out there, aplenty for most 'apps', I don't think that the skeptic's assumptions of the REQUIRED Adobe thinking and plans make a lot of sense.
YMMV, of course. We all are humans, after all ... and therefore totally unique.
Neil
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Some folks here seem to be presuming something that isn't true---that our user base has been shrinking since the move to Creative Cloud.
In fact, we have far more users now, largely because the lower price of entry (tens of dollars per month rather than many hundreds or even thousands upfront) gives more people access to our software.
That is one of the reasons that I---as someone who wants to help as many people as possible to communicate and make art---am glad that we have shifted in this direction.
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=============
Is Adobe a good or evil or just mean-spirited company? What an odd thing to waste one's time on. Adobe is a group of people working on vastly different projects that mostly all are digitally based such as software to allow users to do something
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Nice post up there..
that particular sentence strikes me as a good time to remind eveyone it's a " tool " or set of tools. It's simply a way to do stuff and there are many other tools around. Some are not bought off the shelf at retail stores...
I personally would love to see both the cc subscription model AND a standalone perpetual license continued... the latter for those who really need to be independent from the web, which is not dependable or reliable or secure for really serious work on pro work IMO.
I don't really care that much for myself personally but for adobe's sake I'd like to see that.
I wouldn't spend much time arguing with someone about whether a dewalt or makita or bosch or craftsman " cordless drill " was the best for my own use... why would I think any differently about adobe products ?
Unfortunately I kinda wish adobe would focus on pro end of the future of film making in the world and that means being able to go into the boonies without internet access , and it also means a platform that is not constantly threatened by virus and worms and gawd only knows .... in other words, not hooked up to the internet at all once the product is loaded and configured.
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> ...and that means being able to go into the boonies without internet access .... in other words, not hooked up to the internet at all once the product is loaded and configured.
That is already the case.
You can use the desktop applications for 99 days without an Internet connection. You just need to be able to connect briefly once every 99 days for the activation.
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Todd.. trust me ...nobody is gonna deal with that simple condition on movies... I do understand what you're saying and agree the mass market has no problem with that. It doesn't address the security issue IMO but that's another issue. What is it that makes a continuation of perpetual license for new versions so distasteful for adobe ? Like, when the cc gets to 9.2 , why not release a standalone version of that for desktops ?
Nobody uses adobe for locations now on big productions for DIT and even simple " dailies " viewing ..or video assist ( live from hd sdi and record ). My opinion is that adobe should pursue that market even though it is small now compared to the mass market of iphone videos and pro sumer cameras and so on. why not do both ?
sabrina took over 3 months to build a single set out at dosoris island ny.. ( the mansion )... and shot for way more than 90 days. I know of movies that shot for a year or more in jungles and places without internet access... are you saying 90 days is meaningful ? What if you left home to go on job when your activation was 60 days old and now you have 30 days left and went on location ? Come on.. lets just look at what is real and make the point... you either need the internet and the subscription OR you have BOTH the subscription service AND the perpetual license ... what's so hard about that ?? Lock your version for work into a platform that is independent of subscription ( pay for it ) but also have the cc for work where you're not on locations like that.. or aren't worried about security. I really don't get it.. why you can't have both.
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In fact, we have far more users now
Are you claiming the cloud has more users than the CS versions? If not, then what exactly are you claiming? That Adobes user base has increased if you sum the CS and CC users together? That's not a very good metric. The real metric here is comparing the amount of relatively recent CS version licenses (let's say from cs5 to cs6) to the amount of cloud users. Are you claiming Adobe has more CC users than CS5 to CS6 users?
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Yes, we have more users of After Effects CC through subscription than we have of After Effects CS6 through a perpetual license. A lot more. The difference is even greater for Premiere Pro.
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Andy, it really doesn't matter IMO. And it's not really meaningful except as a point in time at a particular time in the life cycle of a product. Look at all the products that have gone by the wayside.. over time... due to evolution of users ( market ). Kodak, Fuji film for motion pic, PC desktop sales, Polaroid.. the list is endless.. in every media ( print .. how about time life ? ). Adobe is adjusting to the market and it's normal.
It's really not the point IMO. What I am arguing for personally is that adobe reserve and actively pursue the ability to stay in and get more embedded INTO the pro markets for international distribution of films. I know they already suffered from the print evolution as has every publisher and offset press business.. as we go to digital e readers etc.
Newspapers are struggling to stay alive. The list is endless of the effect of computer revolution.
The number of users is not at this point in time that important even as a revenue stream for adobe. They are looking down the road about 10 years or so.
They are buying 4 billion dollars worth of their own stock right now... which helps support the price earning ratio and gives them leverage for cheaper credit in the future. They are struggling and trying to adapt to reality.. and most of THAT is market share and changing stuff... and a big reliance on the internet, streaming media, monetizing ads with real time updates on hits and tracking the metrics from their product suites .. there's a lot going on. Way more than how many users are now customers.
In order to help adobe it would be nice to focus on what we can suggest to really help that idiot CEO get with the program IMO... and start thinking about the creative factor and stop focusing on his stupid vision of the world tomorrow with everyone making iphone movies.. that crowd will NOT monetize what they make. When they grow up they will NOT know the tools being used ( cause it wont be the cc ...nobody in their right mind would do a pro job where you have to update your product every time you turn on your computer due to some stupid mssg from adobe )...
marketing is one thing.. working is another.. and to help adobe is to make them understand what the working part is concerned with...
I couldn't care less how many users adobe has... or how many govt agencies keep the PDF format alive now that the tax payers have no clue where THAT leads to....
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Yes, we have more users of After Effects CC through subscription than we have of After Effects CS6 through a perpetual license. A lot more. The difference is even greater for Premiere Pro.
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As the first person to discover last NAB that the PL was dead and the CC was the only option, I understand the frustration and sense of betrayal that many folks feel. When I found out that Monday on the NAB floor I went home (Vegas) and cried bloody murder on the Creative Cow. (I continue to educate folks internationally about the problems with the CC by referring them to the CC Forums so they can see first hand the myriad of problems folks are having.) I was very angry with the whole situation. I expressed that in no terms to all the folks I had come to know as a formerly BIG enthusiast and beta tester for Adobe.
But I find now its rather fruitless trying to confront folks like Todd and Kevin who are really the good guys in this scenario. They are employees of Adobe and are not going to jeopardize their jobs by saying anything that would contradict the company line. I dont fault them for this. We all would do the same thing. This is why I dont waste my time at Creative Cow or Adobe Forums trying to "educate" them to my POV anymore. They know. CC is what it is. Blowing hot air yelling at the folks that make great software is a waste of time and energy.
I will however continues posting on web sites internationally by inviting folks to check out the Adobe CC Forum so they can see what others folks first hand experiences are. I think that makes a very bold, persuasive statement that might make a difference in determining whether folks decide to participate.
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I think that makes a very bold, persuasive statement that might make a difference in determining whether folks decide to participate.
Works both ways as in "...decide to participate or not".
Personally..I dont care who does or who doesnt and I dont try to convince anyone either way.
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LOL.. " slap " ...
" that'll teach ya ! "
hehe...
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Interesting, lasvideo ... I would note that going to the user-forum for dealing with problems is not necessarily the best place to find out about over-all user experience?
I've posted in PPro & Sg forums here my problems ... but if you've read any of my posts in htis thread, you'll note that I'm using more Adobe software than ever ... and making no attempt whatever at acquiring/learning any of the competitive ones at the moment. Why would that be?
Well ... let's see ... perhaps because even WITH the problems I've had at times, the vast majority of my work goes quite well. And from experience with other complicated software AND from the comments I see on other forae of the problems people have with all the other apps out there ... there isn't a "perfect" app around. Some are better for particular people/hardware/useage than others. Most are actually usable within certain provisos.
Personally, having started with PPro ... 6? the last pre-CC version ... and been on the cloud, the CC version is WAY superior to my uses, needs, and time-management than the "permanent license" version. The way I cut over to Sg in seconds to grade abit ... the way I'm not worried about transcoding the three cameras I use and their slightly different formats into a "standard" codec because they all just work and blend-in on a timeline and the output is fine ... nope, all in all, CC has lifted my capabilities and reduced the time needed to do almost anything by a TON over the CS6 version of PPro & Sg.
About the only Adobe "main" software I don't use is the purchased version of the pdf reader. There's many cheap to free options for that format out there. But PPro, Ae, and Sg ... they're frustrating at times, but ... in the main ... SO much better than before for me.
Neil
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Yes, we have more users of After Effects CC through subscription than we have of After Effects CS6 through a perpetual license. A lot more. The difference is even greater for Premiere Pro.
Why do you need to talk about those two specific programs? And limit it to CS6? Is it because we all know Adobe has sold more than 4 million CS6 licenses alone. Not to even mention CS5 on top of that which I believe did better than CS6. Do you have more than 4 million paying cloud users now? If not, then please don't claim that I'm "presuming something that isn't true".
But I find now its rather fruitless trying to confront folks like Todd and Kevin
I'm not trying to confront any person. I'm interested in debating and fact checking. I have nothing against Todd. He simply made a claim that I want to verify.
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Verify how you know this then...
Is it because we all know Adobe has sold more than 4 million CS6 licenses alone. Not to even mention CS5 on top of that which I believe did better than CS6.
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The reason that I gave answers for those application is because I'm on the After Effects team and we're having this conversation on the Premiere Pro forum. I can also see the same data for Photoshop and, wow, that's an even bigger increase.
I'm not looking at sales data (because I can't), and I couldn't share that data externally even if I could see it. I see active use data. We have a lot more people actually using our software than ever before.
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We have a lot more people actually using our software than ever before.
ohhhh...nice shot K.
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> Todd Kopriva
You called one of my last posts misleading?
May be you can explain the following:
The reference:
http://wwwimages.adobe.com/www.adobe.com/content/dam/Adobe/en/investor-relations/PDFs/ADBE-Investor-...
(taken from Adobe.com/Company/Investors)
tells us the following:
Page 4, left site, top:
Complete amount of CS 3-6 Suite-Users: 8.4 millions.
Complete amount of CS 3-6 Single-product-Users: 4.4 millions.
Complete: 12.8 millions.
Page 5, right site, top:
Complete amount of subscribers (so called "Cloud"): 1.4 millions.
Yes, we have more users of After Effects CC through subscription than we have of After Effects CS6 through a perpetual license. A lot more. The difference is even greater for Premiere Pro.
Can only be the truth, when less than 1.4 mio. of the complete 12.8 mio CS-Owners (11%) have no AE Single Product or Production Suite or Master Collection.
Hard to believe, but I will take it as given.
But it´s also only the truth, if you would call everyone a "user" who simply has the App installed.
CC is like buying (and paying for) a former Master Collection - if you need the Apps or not.
So, you have to call someone, who only needs Illustrator, PS & InDesign (former Std Suite) a new AE-user. Regardless if he/she is using the App or not.
Did you do your math under these conditions?
(Not an AE-user in my eyes - Sorry for that. A user is someone, who is using the product constantly). Have a look to your Adobes own forums and listen to the voices: there are many that would be glad, if they can only order (and pay for) what they use and need.
Please explain, what I did not understand?
A former release of this handout (May 2013, which is not available any more at Adobes website) is telling very clearly (the sites are missing in the new version), that Adobes plan is to bring 4 millions users to the cloud in 2015. In this year they want to make nearby the same income, based on this - as with the former 12.8 mio users.
If I take all this "Adobe official information" as the truth, I have really difficulties if I compare to your words.
Nothing against you, your work and that of your friends and clleagues.
I find this misleading.
I really don´t want to harm you personally in any way - I simply don´t understand.
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===========
I'm not looking at sales data (because I can't), and I couldn't share that data externally even if I could see it
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I wouldn't brag about that fact..
The inherent " secrecy " between the portions of your company is a big problem.
You refer people to make " requests " for new features or to FIX things... from this forum..
YOU have no clue what is going on in the development or programming parts of your company. YOU do what you can to help users with dialogue and help files and really good facts about how things work now.. but you are not really " connected " with the rest of the company...
Secrecy is fine if you think so.. but to ME that is really stupid and a fragmented company structure.. that depends on 'secrecy' .. and it starts from the VERY TOP ...your CEO.. and trickles down through the whole company...
It is why millions and millions of people got hacked and nobody admitted it until the story broke 'outside ' of adobe...because the 'results' of that hacking became public on the net.
I wouldn't be bragging about being secretive if I were you...
To me that is a horrorible way to run a company...
sorry.. You are really good Todd.. but that attitude is insane about secrecy and I know where it comes from ... so it's not your fault.
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> Andy
Thanks.
(PS.: Horrible Code. Agree. OK for Hobbyists, not for Prof. Choice? Agree. Hardcore misunderstanding? Agree. Fear? Agree.)
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Sales data is considered "insider" information, and all publicly traded companies are obligated to compartmentalize that information to prevent against insider trading and accusations of same.
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> Andy
Code of DW & Muse? Agree.
(You have to aprove manualy. Adobe or not - but Muse is a horror)
Wonder, how long it takes, till you give up...
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>shooternz
Verify how you know this then...
Page 4, left side, top.
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Counting CS3-CS6 sales doesn't give you 12 million different users. That's 12 million licenses to people who have for the most part upgraded from one version to the next to the next. CS3-CS6 encompasses five major releases, so there's a lot of double-counting (and quintuple-counting) there.
Again, I can't see sales data, which is what it would take to see the breakdowns for the high-level numbers that you're quoting from the financial statements. I can just see what's actually being used, and the CC versions of the applications are being used more than their predecessors... in some cases a lot more.
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> lasvideo
But I find now its rather fruitless trying to confront folks like Todd and Kevin who are really the good guys in this scenario....
You are right it´s fruitless.
Nothing against them personally.
But, as they represent also Adobe here (beside all their helpful statements), it´s sometimes not easy to differ.
Some of all the Pro-Cloud Arguments (espec. of the Adobe Marketing) are misleading, hard to understand, and hiding fundamental lacks.
Beginning with the name: "Cloud". Which was taken, as someone would like to create as much confusion as possible.
Terms like: "You will never lose access to your files..." are used in a way, that is simply misleading (espec. for newcomers).
And so on.
As Adobe was a part of the family for many...
Many are dependent on Adobe based workflows...
And the Apps are/were base of the business of many...
So it may happen, that words are sometimes louder than they should be.
If so - Sorry to all who feel harmed.
This is a discussion about products, not persons.
But you are also right (and I begin to understand), that blowing hot air here is nearby fruitless.
Whish you good luck.
Tx for the start of this threat.