The plain truth is that none of us, as users, have enough information to give any concrete recommendations from what was seen this morning. All we saw were Apple’s statements during a marketing-driven keynote speech, and Apple was not sufficiently specific for anyone to make any hard decisions. All you will get today from users is speculation.
But this is the Apple Worldwide Developers’ Conference, so you do have the benefit of a group that will have more information than us users: Apple developers, who are now attending the more specific breakout sessions after the keynote, learning what Apple is telling them about how their apps need to be written for this new environment. We might get better answers after this week’s sessions are done and developers have a better sense of the work that lies ahead, and what Apple is planning (in terms of hardware roadmaps and long-term support for Intel) that is out of their control. I will be watching for commentary from any developers who attended sessions and blog about it later.
You expressed a hope for a 10-year life for a top-of-the-line MacBook Pro. That is not usually realistic. I know several friends and family who were or are using Mac laptops for over 10 years, but what they have in common was most of their time is spent surfing the web or reading email. Very modest hardware needs. But you mentioned “After Effects, Premiere Pro, and VDMX (which is a live visual effects program), as well as Photoshop, Illustrator, and Animate.” I don’t think there’s ever been a time when a laptop could keep up with those applications for 10 years without severely limiting expectations in the last 4–5 years of use. Think of how well the best available Mac laptop from 10 years ago would meet the system requirements of those applications today…
I got over 10 years out of a Mac and was using major Adobe applications on it (including video editing, though not 4K) at the end, but it was possible only because it was an upgradeable Mac Pro tower. I was able to get it to 10 years by, over time, upgrading its RAM to the max, upgrading the internal drives, and upgrading the video card, to keep up with Adobe system requirements. But none of those upgrades is possible with Mac laptops, another reason why it is difficult to use a Mac laptop for more than 4–6 years with the latest versions of major Adobe applications before the laptop needs to be replaced.
To see what impact ARM Macs will have, we have to wait a while until more details come out. If you need to buy a Mac soon, the fact is it will be months before any ARM Macs are available for sale. The Developer Test Kit Macs made available today use the same chip as in the iPad Pro, which is unlikely to be the chip used in the first ARM Macs, so we still don’t know exactly how the first ARM Macs will perform, or if they will be introduced at the high end or low end. Too many questions that will not be answered soon.
In the meantime, the 16" MacBook Pro should serve well enough for several years.
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