Chris, thank you again for your help.
I uninstalled 1.5.3.9130, deleted all the folders and files you suggested, and tried to use the installer from the main Adobe AIR page. Didn't work.
Removed everything again, installed from the 1.5.3.9130 installer that came with Captivate 5 - at least my AIR apps are working (except Captivate HELP app).
Tried disabling all my anti-virus, downloading the installer again, and running it - no go. The AIR apps still prompt for the upgrade every time I run them.
I tried downloading the installer with a different browser - still didn't work.
I'm not sure what you're going to see with a screenshare. - There's really not much visually going on except the installer saying it's finished. Here are the new installer logs. Are there any other log files - maybe something in the event viewer?
[2010-12-09:11:26:55] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:26:55] Commandline is: -update
[2010-12-09:11:26:55] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:27:02] Relaunching with elevation
[2010-12-09:11:27:02] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air1f.tmp\adobe air installer.exe -ei
[2010-12-09:11:27:02] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:27:02] Commandline is: -stdio \\.\pipe\AIR_5116_0 -ei
[2010-12-09:11:27:02] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:27:02] Starting silent runtime update. Updating runtime from version 1.5.3.9130 to version 2.5.1.17730
[2010-12-09:11:27:02] Reinstalling c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air1f.tmp\setup.msi
[2010-12-09:11:27:03] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:27:03] Elevated install completed
[2010-12-09:11:27:05] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:28:41] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:28:41] Commandline is: -update
[2010-12-09:11:28:41] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:28:45] Relaunching with elevation
[2010-12-09:11:28:45] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air9dd4.tmp\adobe air installer.exe -ei
[2010-12-09:11:28:48] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:28:48] Commandline is: -stdio \\.\pipe\AIR_2908_0 -ei
[2010-12-09:11:28:48] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:28:48] Starting silent runtime update. Updating runtime from version 1.5.3.9130 to version 2.5.1.17730
[2010-12-09:11:28:48] Reinstalling c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air9dd4.tmp\setup.msi
[2010-12-09:11:28:49] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:28:49] Elevated install completed
[2010-12-09:11:28:51] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:43:46] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows Vista x86
[2010-12-09:11:43:46] Commandline is:
[2010-12-09:11:43:46] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:43:49] Relaunching with elevation
[2010-12-09:11:43:49] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air6db0.tmp\adobe air installer.exe -ei
[2010-12-09:11:43:52] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:43:52] Commandline is: -stdio \\.\pipe\AIR_3276_0 -ei
[2010-12-09:11:43:52] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:43:52] Starting silent runtime update. Updating runtime from version 1.5.3.9130 to version 2.5.1.17730
[2010-12-09:11:43:52] Reinstalling c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air6db0.tmp\setup.msi
[2010-12-09:11:43:54] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:43:54] Elevated install completed
[2010-12-09:11:43:56] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR\Versions\1.0\Resources\Adobe AIR Updater -installupdatecheck
[2010-12-09:11:43:56] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:46:57] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:46:57] Commandline is: -update
[2010-12-09:11:46:57] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:47:00] Relaunching with elevation
[2010-12-09:11:47:00] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air5791.tmp\adobe air installer.exe -ei
[2010-12-09:11:47:11] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:47:11] Commandline is: -stdio \\.\pipe\AIR_4988_0 -ei
[2010-12-09:11:47:11] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:47:11] Starting silent runtime update. Updating runtime from version 1.5.3.9130 to version 2.5.1.17730
[2010-12-09:11:47:11] Reinstalling c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air5791.tmp\setup.msi
[2010-12-09:11:47:12] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:47:12] Elevated install completed
[2010-12-09:11:47:14] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:51:51] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:51:51] Commandline is:
[2010-12-09:11:51:51] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:51:53] Relaunching with elevation
[2010-12-09:11:51:53] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\aird6cf.tmp\adobe air installer.exe -ei
[2010-12-09:11:51:56] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:51:56] Commandline is: -stdio \\.\pipe\AIR_5412_0 -ei
[2010-12-09:11:51:56] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:51:56] Starting silent runtime update. Updating runtime from version 1.5.3.9130 to version 2.5.1.17730
[2010-12-09:11:51:56] Reinstalling c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\aird6cf.tmp\setup.msi
[2010-12-09:11:51:57] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:51:57] Elevated install completed
[2010-12-09:11:52:00] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR\Versions\1.0\Resources\Adobe AIR Updater -installupdatecheck
[2010-12-09:11:52:00] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:52:23] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows Vista x86
[2010-12-09:11:52:23] Commandline is:
[2010-12-09:11:52:23] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:52:26] Relaunching with elevation
[2010-12-09:11:52:26] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air5502.tmp\adobe air installer.exe -ei
[2010-12-09:11:52:29] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:52:29] Commandline is: -stdio \\.\pipe\AIR_1336_0 -ei
[2010-12-09:11:52:29] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:52:29] Starting silent runtime update. Updating runtime from version 1.5.3.9130 to version 2.5.1.17730
[2010-12-09:11:52:29] Reinstalling c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air5502.tmp\setup.msi
[2010-12-09:11:52:30] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:52:31] Elevated install completed
[2010-12-09:11:52:33] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR\Versions\1.0\Resources\Adobe AIR Updater -installupdatecheck
[2010-12-09:11:52:33] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:53:18] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows Vista x86
[2010-12-09:11:53:18] Commandline is: -update
[2010-12-09:11:53:18] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:53:21] Relaunching with elevation
[2010-12-09:11:53:21] Launching subprocess with commandline c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air29af.tmp\adobe air installer.exe -ei
[2010-12-09:11:53:24] Runtime Installer begin with version 2.5.1.17730 on Windows 7 x86
[2010-12-09:11:53:24] Commandline is: -stdio \\.\pipe\AIR_1320_0 -ei
[2010-12-09:11:53:24] Installed runtime (1.5.3.9130) located at c:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe AIR
[2010-12-09:11:53:24] Starting silent runtime update. Updating runtime from version 1.5.3.9130 to version 2.5.1.17730
[2010-12-09:11:53:24] Reinstalling c:\users\user\appdata\local\temp\air29af.tmp\setup.msi
[2010-12-09:11:53:25] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
[2010-12-09:11:53:25] Elevated install completed
[2010-12-09:11:53:27] Runtime Installer end with exit code 0
I've forwarded your post to our installer engineers, so we'll see if they have any guidance that will stop this from occuring. I was considering desktop sharing so I could go through your registry and try removing AIR related entries. If you feel comfortable doing that yourself, it might be worthwhile since it's helped others in the past. Searching for strings with "AIR" (or obvious AIR product related keys) seems to be what most users have done.
Chris