Hello, Andy ...
"Fact 1: Adobe has less paying CC users than it had paying CS6 users.
Fact 2: Adobe is predicting higher future income based on it's new subscription model.
Conclusion: If facts 1 and 2 continue to stay true, CC users will necessarily have to pay more money to Adobe in the future."
My college profs would have shot this rhetorical argument down before I'd sat down. From both the discussions I've seen here and what I've seen reported elsewhere, it's darn difficult to compare the exact profit margins of two very different models when you do NOT have the exact figures of either ... and you seem only concerned about the income stream, not the cost "stream". From what I've known of businesses that have gone to a subscription, the costs do change. What figures do you have on the actual expenses of Adobe prior to the licensing vs. their expense ledgers now? You'd have to have all that to make a half-informed argument about this.
Further, you don't know all the internals about say, client base and further cost controls that may yet come within their plans ... so to make the total and absolute assumption that because they expect a higher future income it can ONLY come from higher fees. Again, you've not shown anywhere near the data to presume that.
So ... an argument based on only part of the overall profitability of a huge and varied company, without knowing any of their internal plans or expectations for the future. Ignoring a tremendous amount of necessary data.
Fact 1. NSA wants to, and has been using it's capabilities to gather information on foreign companies in order to give US an advantage over them. This has been confirmed by several reliable sources, like Edward Snowden and other NSA employees.
Fact 2. NSA has been accessing cloud services to gather large parts of this information. US based companies are not allowed to report this to the consumers.
Fact 3. Adobe has a US based cloud service.
Conclusion: NSA is likely to want access to Adobe's cloud. Adobe will have to comply and can't tell this to the consumers.
You say you're an american and wont have to worry about that. Good for you.
Hmmm. Not that I'm pleased with the NSA's activity, still ... because I have a subscription currently with Adobe for software, and there is a capability to post some of one's work to their "cloud" if one chooses ... you jump to the NSA being able to spy into my machine? Interesting leap. Again, my college profs would have been less than impressed.
Could this possibly happen? NSA looking into my stuff? Remotely, yes ... if and when I decide there is some reason to "share" something on their "cloud". Other than that I've an Adobe CC subscription, there's not a lot that is of interest to anyone past Adobe's accounting department about me.
Is ANYTHING in what I might ever post going to be worth the hassle and time to look through it? Not a chance. I don't happen to deal with state secrets or even company secrets worth a crapper. Haven't designed any worthwhile new fantastic machines. Don't share knowledge with physicists, engineers, mathematicians, politicians, geepers ... anyone cool. My personal life is amazingly boring. Having dealt with a few ex-security types in the past, just having known them ... and talked with them only about what people THINK their peers do and what really is of any interest ... I'm not on their short list. Sigh. Wish it weren't so.
My accounting software is also subscription ... but again, like Adobe, I don't post any info there. I know you're absolutely convinced that at some near point Adobe will send some nice guy here with a gun and force me to both post everything I have on their cloud AND keep paying the subscription. I rather doubt it. And I'm no more "trapped" into Adobe than you are.
2. You also seem to suggest that future can't be predicted based on the knowledge of the past. You write that I base my arguments "presumptions of another group's future behavior" and try to make it sound like it's impossible to predict the future in fact based manner.
This, of course is a false notion. I can perfectly predict, that the floor under me won't collapse when I walk on it, based on my knowledge of it not doing so in the past. I can predict that the sun will rise tomorrow based on my knowledge of it's past behavior. And I can predict that a company controlled by the interests of it's stock holders, will do anything they possibly can in order to gain as much profit as possible.
My. Yes, it's shocking that a company will do anything it can to maximize profits. And that makes them different from any other company (including mine) ... how? And if you're so certain they will do ANYTHING to maximize profits, yet ... you are also absolutely certain that the CC model has cost them major profits (though you've never as mentioned above dealt with their entire income/expense situation) ... um, that seems like a bizarre "argument" to me. You're insisting they are totally ignoring millions of dollars of income and yet ... are going to not miss a beat in how to beat more money out of their clients ... really.
I still say I see large holes in your thought-processes. But enough for now, I might be able to post later on the rest of your comments. Not that I find the logic in those more compelling.
Neil
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