News on Premiere Next at Adobe Max

[lasvideo]

Join us today at our #AdobeMAX keynote, live at 9:30 a.m. PT with CEO Shantanu Narayen and SVP @DWadhwani: http://adobe.ly/AdobeNext

[joe_bloe_premiere]

Or, does anyone even know if it affects all AVCHD cameras or just certain ones? 

There is an ongoing effort to figure that out:

CS6 / AVCHD / Spanned Clip Bug / What Cameras And Media Types Are Affected?

[Mark Mapes]

I dug into this a bit and learned that Colin was referring to issues with card spanning, not clip spanning. I'm not familiar with either the issues involved with recordings that spann multiple cards or the obstacles to addressing them, but I know that those issues are distinct from the problem with AVCHD clips spanned across multiple files on a given card.

[blackrosekiller]

I did specifically ask about the AVCHD spanned clip bug and Colin told me and my colleague that the bug was not with spanned clips and that it was with spanned media.  It really seems that Adobe is confused about the issue and can't convey a clear message about it.  The very fact that there is no ETA on a fix for a major piece of advertised functionality when the software is already on a new version does not bode well for the future of Adobe. 

It seems like CS6 has been troubled from the start.  I opted not to buy it when it first came out because there was an issue with  presets missing.  Then a separate installer was issued but that had a bug in it that caused all of your presets to disappear in any previous version of Premiere Pro that you had installed on your computer.  That happened to me personally.  Luckily I had a backup so I copied the directory back over to my hard drive.  Anyone who didn't have a file backup had to reinstall their software.  If you are like me and have tons of plugins that's a real headache.

[AnthonyArrien]

I was a witness to that statement that the spanned clip bug fix was a legal problem with CS6.
The person who made the statement at the Adobe booth at the Tekserve conference was Colin Smith of Adobe Systems, who has been with Adobe for 15 years. 
Colin Smith was also a speaker at the conference.

I am very concerned, because this is keeping me from buying CS6 Production Premium.  I would like to use the Sony HXR-NX30U but that may be one of the cameras affected.  Creative Cloud is financially just not an option for my small production company.

I just don't understand how Adobe could leave small companies like mine out of their business plan. 

I know that I am not alone with this problem.  I am also on the listserve of the Alliance for Community Media, and a lot of Community Media centers (PEG Access) are barely hanging on in this economy because of government funding cutbacks.  They can't handle recurring costs and they have yearly operating budgets much larger than mine.  It's a very diverse business out there in video production, and it seems that Adobe is trying to do a one-size-fits-all approach.  Filmmakers like me do projects that take years to finish.  Creative Cloud is not an option for me at this time. 

Maryann Arrien

Brain Trust Productions Inc.

[the_wine_snob]

I don't envy his position.

It is very often that way with our trusted Adobe Staff members. They are limited in what they can say at any moment in time, but because of their badges, make a great target.

I know of 3 - 4, who visited the product forums on their own time, doing what they could. Unfortunately, they had a very large target painted on their backs, so found other outlets for their free time, like family.

I do not know Mark, but have been aware of many of his contributions around these parts.

Soon, we will ALL know what is going on, or at least I hope so.

Hunt

[MD_Optofonik]

What, exactly, is everyone waiting for?

[John T Smith]

My best IDEA is that everyone is waiting for Adobe to describe an "exit strategy" describing how someone using the Cloud may buy a perpetual license product if they decide to stop using the cloud

[Steven L. Gotz]

John,

I think that is fairly easy to describe.

Every time there is an update of any kind, Adobe archives the most current software. Then when someone wants to keep what they have been using, Adobe comes up with a price and tags that user to the current archive. If the price is based on how much the user paid and how long they have subscribed, even if it was a higher price than might be considered fair by some of the people around here, at least there would be a price and a decision could be made by the user based on that price.

[MD_Optofonik]

Sounds kind of like a lease to buy program. Even I could get behind that.

[Steven L. Gotz]

Of course, people who paid for CS^ (I didn't) should geta a much better deal than those who only signed up for the Creative Cloud from either a really old version, or starting from scratch.

Adobe can't have someone subscribe for a couple of years, paying $1200 along the way and end up with the entire suite. But if you started with the entire suite, then the subscription should be pretty close to the cost already. So even if they took 50%, if you paid for a couple of years, the price to quit should be quite reasonable. Maybe $600 or so.

That would be my suggestion if I worked for Adobe Marketing.

Keep in mind, that means people are paying for the right to quit. They get you coming and going. It is money they would not otherwise have a chance to squeeze out of you. But at least you would be making the decision.

[Biggles Lamb]

Steven

I still cannot get my old head around your logic associated with exit buy-out costs

The upgrade cost in the UK of Production Premium from CS5 to CS6 was £660 for the full version

Now with one year at the subsidised rate and one year at the normal rate a CS6 user will pay £775 over the two years for CC (lets call it say CS7)

Then with your logic you think that the user should pay another £400 ($600) to get a perpetual license

So to summarize: -

£660 to upgrade from CS5 to CS6

£775+£400 = £1175 in CC subscriptions + buy out for CS7

That is £515 more in the two years for CC in your model when in the same two years with CS pricing a user would pay say £725 for CS7 (I'm including an Adobe vast price hke from one Cs version to another)

Your logic does not make financial sense unless you are an Adobe Exec in disguise

Col

[JKad]

Adobe has already made its marketing/financial/business decision.  Adobe vetted this with institutional portfolio managers and investors and test marketed it.  They know a projection at least of the number of "customers" they will sacrifice with the subscription model.  I would be shocked if we see ANY change in pricing or the subscription model.  There are a very few top managers whose jobs and bonuses are at stake here and after having taken this subscription leap, they are not going to retract now. 

Adobe reported today to be ahead of projections for the number of new subscribers and the stock reacted favorably.  Although they will not get the up front revenue they would have with a new numbered release, the investment community is looking at sustainable revenue and those projections have reportedly been exceeded. 

Lets not kid ourselves, we need to develop our own "exit strategy"; don't expect Adobe to do it for you.  Why would Adobe give you a way out???  That would run counter to everything Adobe is doing. 

For me, my exit strategy will be to use CS 6 Production Premium until I have to find more current software.  I have upgraded to Lightroom 5 but will not join the cloud.

As I said in an earlier post, it will be a year or two before we know how financially successful Adobe has been.  For me, CS 6 should be adequate for that length of time.  When I need to, I will consider alternatives.  I will not forget and Adobe will not be a "favored" provider.  It's a business decision.

[lasvideo]

"Adobe has already made its marketing/financial/business decision."

It aint necesarily so BJK....

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/06/19/adobe_q2_customers_disappointed_with_no_boxed_wares/

Yes CS6 will do everything I need and then some until the next shoe drops.

[Andy Bay]

Adobe seems to think that all the angry and disappointed customers can't hurt them.

Man are they going to be wrong about that.

Let's see how they feel when they loose 200 000 - 300 000 customers because of this mess. I believe that's actually a very realistic amount.

[John T Smith]

>loose 200 000 - 300 000 customers

Compared to how may current CS5/CS6 licenses sold?

Some (faulty memory) numbers I've read in the past couple of months are "about" half a million Cloud subscribers and "about" five million (or more?) past CS buyers

Since the only way for new features is the Cloud... I wonder how many of the five million (or more?) CS customers will move to the Cloud

There has also been discussion (and excerpts from Adobe's financial report) that Adobe KNOWS they will lose some customers... but they plan/hope they will offset that loss with MORE new Cloud customers

The next year or so will show if Adobe is right in that plan

[jabra27]

I'm not waiting a year to find out if Adobe thinks it was right.

At this point, Adobe is going to have to "buy" my business back.

A REALLY good update/upgrade product from CS6, and CHEAP.

Just noticed that Encore is gone. (sorry, little slow) How rediculous is that? Considering that 90% of my business is dance recitals. How many parents do you know that would go online to watch a dance recital, or show it to the grandparents when they visit? Little girls (and boys) want to HOLD the DVD in their hands.

Adobe has lost their minds.

Maybe I'll check back in while to see if they have pulled their heads out of their backsides.

Thank you to all of those who have helped me to great extent with their knowledge.

See ya!

[Keano66]

Encore GONE? makes me even more try to my CS6 to my breast! Premiere- Photoshop- Encore- After Effects...what a groovy team of products.

[John T Smith]

>Just noticed that Encore is gone

Cloud and Encore http://forums.adobe.com/thread/1236852

[Steven L. Gotz]

John,

Encore CS6 is not gone. They just didn't upgrade it to CC. You still have it, and new users can still get it.

[Stan Jones]

Encore CS6 is not gone. They just didn't upgrade it to CC. You still have it, and new users can still get it.

Let's not get into semantics. It is "gone" from CC, it is "gone" from the ability to dynamic link, it is gone from being supported in Windows 8 etc, it is gone from future development.

The fact that Encore CS6 is still available means it is not "gone." But Encore CC that everyone expected with at least the same functionality as before is "gone."

[bababongatwo]

Exactly.

All that half-truth arguments...

"It isn´t gone..." (ignoring that it will be gone soon, as no longer developed...).

"We are searching on solutions, allowing users to use their files after subscription..."
"You can save to CS6-files..." (not pointing out, that not all CC-Apps are able to do... And no guaranty for future behavior)

I can´t hear any longer... It hurts...

----------

CC = Cash Cow = Terminating the word "Archive" in digital future = Lifelong dependency = NoGo = Never

[Luvfilm]

The fact that Encore will not be updated beyond CS6 tells me that what is going on in Adobe is more than just looking for increased profits.  A number of years ago, Adobe aggresively went after the professional video market with a we are here to listen and support you attitude.  Changes were made and the products got better.  I work for a large organization with a big central office and a phrase describing those who work there as opposed to in the field is that they are "out of touch."  Regular DVD and BR continue to sell well.  The education market still uses DVDs, as I am sure do others.  Why, when a product is in use would a company, especially a big company, whose specialty is supporting video creation, decide that they are finished?  Did they survey the users?  Did they ask you?  I guess I am tired of trying to figure out what Adobe is thinking. 

I realized that DVDs will soon be replaced...but not yet.  The DVD is still an incredibly efficient way to provide several hours of information.  Ever had WiFi not work?  Or a presentation cancelled because of internet/wifi/website issues?

It just seems that the constant improving and tweaking of tools being used by your customers would be a given. I wonder how many of those who voted to not further its development and refinement use it?

Adobe will do what Adobe will do-as will other companies.

[bababongatwo]

Andy Bay wrote:

Adobe seems to think that all the angry and disappointed customers can't hurt them.

Man are they going to be wrong about that.

Let's see how they feel when they loose 200 000 - 300 000 customers because of this mess. I believe that's actually a very realistic amount.

Please note: They made their bill with losing more than half of their usership!

( http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-57589987-92/adobe-ceo-were-off-to-a-good-start-with-subscriptions-q... )

So 200, 300.000 users don´t make them nervous.

They simply don´t want us. They are lucky, if they can keep 4 Mio "Professional" Cloudies - and their paln will work.
They say. 
Let´s see in 2 or 3 years, if there is a company called Adobe or not.

(I don´t think so... if they don´t do a significant change)

[JKad]

Adobe reports that there are 12.2 million users of their creative software.  Of these approximately 8 million have products with multiple applications and the remaining approximately 4 million have stand-alone applications.  They expect to have approximately 4 million subscribers to CC by the end of their fiscal year in November 2013 (I've not been able to find a breakdown between stand-alone application and full suite subscribers).  Adobe reports being on track to achieve their projections.  Sacrificing 200 thousand to 300 thousand users is well within expectations since of the 12.2 million users, they project having only 4 million subscribers by November 2013.

There are two things to look for:

1) If we see Adobe extending the discount that currently expires on 7/31/2013.  That will be accompanied with a statement to the effect, "Due to overwhelming success and large number of subscribers to CC, we are extending the offer to allow our user base to benefit from CC".  That's spin for "We aren't getting enough subscribers"!

Lead in to the second point is: Photoshop still drives the buss at Adobe.  There are a lot of Photoshop users out there and some are using software from many years ago.  This drive Adobe nuts.  Also, the breakdown between single application and full suite subscriptions will ultimately determine the success for the CC plan.  If there aren't enough full suite subscribers, Adobe may need to address bundling of suites.  Right now, it's one, all or nothing.  If the mix isn't what they need, you will see:

2) A photographer's bundle such as Photoshop and Lightroom or Photoshop, Lightroom and another application chosen between a carefully selected limited sub-set of applications.

We should not expect to see an exit plan.  That simply put will not happen.  The entire concept is that Adobe is going to rent/lease its software and users will not have access to perpetual licenses.      

[bababongatwo]

BJKad

You are absolutely right.
Quite good analysis. But the story isn´t at it´s end.
There are still some facts, which can change a lot.

They have thought this to the end, and they didn´t offer an buy-out in full knowledge what a harm that would be for (espec. long time) users.
No one can tell me, they didn´t, created this devlish plan and are surprised now about their users reaction, needs and rumors.

They are in knowledge about that this can cost them more than the half of their usership (what an business strategy!!!). Their CEO said.

As they have to catch 1,25 Mio Cloudies till the end of the year, the ONLY 700.000 already are no good sign for them. There will be an other great move in July because of the updates and the discount for old CS6 users (and watch market: They will shout out loud! Listen to them in August also ; !) , but then it will be very hard to keep amount of their Cloudies rising.
But if they don´t can foresee, that they will get their promised 1,25 mio till the end of the year, they will have a problem, as it becomes obvious (to share holders) that their strategy was based on wrong estimashions.
To avoid the punishment of markets they MUST react.
And they will do - every bet, every amount - with throwing some Gimmicks into our Feeding Bowls (like you described).

Their CEO will call that: "They will help SOME of their users to get on the cloud"... They will make other discounts for CS6 users and mollify the PS-Comunity. But  they will never make our archives without Adobe charge. Even they will never change prices downwards (THEY MUST RISE !!! to reach their business goals - espec. if there are not enough Cloudies).

As stupid as it is: They will not change the main concerns like the missing file access after subscription. If they were not as radical with promising to stock markets they could change - but under this conditions they can´t. They already lost their face to us - they can´t also to stock markets.
Very risky waters, you are sailing in, Adobe.

It seems you really have a "vision" of a cloud (which will exist in a far away future). A "vision" where creative suite is the front end and your marketing "cloud" the back end.
Nearby nothing of your "vision" is already existing. Markets are moving unforeseeable in this waters. Competitors also.

What you want is a credit of users to build your future (Are you serios by doing that this way???)

And YOU RISKED to lose the base of YOUR CORE BUSINESS?

Wonder in what an horrible situation Adobe is, that they must take this movement.
If I where an employee (YOU are great!!!) -  I would hate my management!

I´m waiting for the moment where cloud subcribers amount will move down, as they are not longer willing to (or can) pay the rising monthly slavery fees. May be, not in a foreseeable future - but a horizon like 2016 - imaginable.

BtW: For the moment they will and can´t do anything. They have to PRESS as much users as possible to the incredible "cloud". They have to point out their slavery rate to stock markets. So they will change only, when it is foreseeable at August, that they will not reach their 1,25 Mio. They are business monkeys. They dond´t have interesst in good tools for good creatives.
So "creative" is BS and "cloud" also - as cloud computing is something totaly different!