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uhanepono wrote:
bottom line tells me they may rethink... Watch the stock and let's see.
I took your advice, yhanepono, and watched the stock. It appears to have more than doubled since the day in 2013 between the hours of 10 am and 4 PM that your graph shows.
Tom Murray 1 wrote:
Do we know how long the PS CS6 upgrade will be available ?
I work in IT Sales and was in a meeting with Adobe last week; they said CS6 would remain available for the foreseeable future.
Adobe has also committed to making CS6 compatible with the next version of OSX and Windows, which we will see this year for OSX, and probably within the next 12 months for "Windows 8 Blue," or whatever it'll end up being called. So, I would count on CS6 being available for at least the next year.
The biggest problem I think you'll have, especially if you're running a Mac, is how long the OS itself will support the software! If you ever look at any of Chris Cox's posts you'll see that Adobe has been fighting a somewhat losing battle against OSX bugs and glitches for years, so who can tell when they'll just throw in the towel and concentrate on CC.
Windows is an entirely different matter; if you're on Win7 64-bit I'd expect you to be happily running CS6 for 5+ years... plenty of time for a competitor to get in the game! 
Ed.Macke wrote:
CC has 500,000 signed up already.
I think you'd have been nearer the mark with your second guestimate of five million. I coudln't find any current figures, but this page from June last year shows more than two million CC subscribers.
Adobe Passes 2.3 Million Paid Creative Cloud Subscribers - Studio Daily
.If we project that growth then we get something like this.
A conservative estimate allowing for a slow down due market saturation (green line) still gives us >4,000,000 Creative Cloud users at this time, but it is just as likely IMO, that as confidence in CC grows, and the gap between CC and earlier versions widens, that growth has continued at the same rate or better giving us over five million Creative Cloud subscribers by the end of this year. Even if all of the CC subscriptions were for the Photography Plan, then that would mean 600 million dollars/year. If 10% of those users have a full subscription, then that would add another 240 million dollars a year for a total of $840,000,000
I'd have liked to have found stats for CS6 and earlier total sales to gauge then and now revenue. However it is easy to find annual and quarterly revenue figures, and this page shows a whooping $1.153 billion for 2012 Q3
http://www.adobe.com/aboutadobe/pressroom/pressreleases/201212/Q412Earnings.html
That's obviously _way_ more than their CC revenue, but after checking several quarterly figures through to Q1 2015, they appear to be pretty steady at a bit more than $1 billion a quarter. I guess they are still selling a lot of perpetual licenses, or a far greater percentage of CC users have full subscriptions. If all five million had full subscriptions, then that would still only earn Adobe $750 million per quarter, so it looks they do indeed still have a lot of CS6 sales.
...that as confidence in CC grows...
Well, either that or people don't have any option besides CC any longer. 
I find the CC money-grab pretty repulsive, but I'm sure I'll switch to CC at some point because at some point CS6 just won't work any more - and it's not like I can buy CS8.
To paraphrase Henry Ford, "why, look at how good sales of these black Model-T's are!"
Will not be signing up. Spent over 2 hours on the phone to India today who could tell me NOTHING. If Adobe is farming out their customers to India then Adobe is just trying to rake in profits.
This was one main reason I abandoned QuarkXpress. However, I have never been routed to India when calling Adobe and have been thankful for that. Hopefully I never have to encounter that if or when I have to call Adobe.
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