The file size of a jpg is determined by three factors.
- Pixel dimensions
- Quality setting
- Image content
Because of the way jpg compression works, image content can have a huge influence on file size.
Images with predominantly flat, smooth, or out of focus areas are easy to compress, and will have a relatively small file size.
Images with lots of sharp, busy detail (or noise) are harder to compress, and will have a relatively large file size.
Assuming that you're exporting without resizing –
If your edits include Clarity, Texture, or sharpening, the file size will increase.
If you export at 100 quality, the file size is likely to increase, especially if the original was created with a lower quality setting in the camera.
I don't work with jpgs, but as a test I exported an image as jpg at 60 quality, and imported the jpg in LrC. File size 8.5 MB.
I then exported a new jpg at 100 quality from the first jpg (no edits). File size 18,1 MB.
I then exported another jpg at 100 quality from the first jpg with 20 Clarity. File size 25.2 MB.