Yellamokara wrote: But if you upgrade a perpetual license the cost increases as your original version gets older anyway, so the overall cost does not change significantly unless you go for very long periods without upgrading. If you are a professional using this software you are not going to wait that long between upgrades anyway in most cases. |
I'm not sure I understand how you are still with the original version if you are upgrading the perpetual license. Can you clarify that?
The idea that professionals would not wait that long between upgrades, in most cases, is simply mistaken. One purchasing model cannot be applied to the majority of users. It just does not work that way. I'm still using CS, thats as in CS1.0. Why you might ask? Because when I built the computer that CS resides on I built it with the best hardware I could put my hands on. As a result, for what I need, in the capacity I need it, its been adequate and it still runs.
Alot of people are using very old versions, because its all they need and while they are high-end professionals I can bet you that some have different needs in their freelance setup than they do at their day job. You can't fit everyone into the same model, in fact they often fit into multiple models, thats why so many people are outraged at being forced into the cloud. Their freedom and choices are being taken away, and so is the software, if they don't stroke a check to Adobe every month.
Yellamokara wrote: The main difference is that with a perpetual license you pay the cost up front while CC the cost is incurred over time. An advantage with CC is that if your circumstances change you can discontinue the subscription and save some of that overall cost. |
If you sincerely believe that that strategy is going to do well for you, I implore you to listen to the people who have been at this for decades. Their wisdom and experience will spare you a lot of grief. The idea that Adobe is going to just sit back and allow people to subscribe, cancel, subscribe, cancel, subscribe, cancel, wash, rinse, repeat in perpetuity, without penalty, is just silly. I PREDICT, that in time, there will be a penalty to re-up. I further predict that in time they will require customers to back pay all unpaid subscription since the time they dropped. It's inevitable.
If you doubt the potential for this you need to look no further than Autodesk. Many of their maintenance programs, if allowed to lapse require a fee, plus the new maintenance, to reinstate. If you wait too long they require a fee plus a penalty(they don't call it that, but whats the difference), sometimes equal to a sum which far exceeds what you would have paid if you had kept the software on maintenance. So in the end if you don't re-up the maintenance on time, it can become painfully expensive. The thing that sucks about this is you are backpaying for phone support and software you never got to use. Further, it can be far cheaper to allow the maintenace to lapse and just buy a complete new license in 4 to 5 years. So there.
If Adobe has the audacity to follow down this path, to require users who cancel often to pay back rent, how would you enjoy paying back rent for software you never got to use?
You doubt Adobe would have the audacity to something like that? What do you call them telling me that the only way I get to use their new software is to pay forever or they'll take my toys away? How audacious is that?
Yellamokara wrote: If you are using the software to make a living and a few dollars a month averaged over many years is a make or break situation for your margins, you probably need to get into a different line of work. |
What gives anyone the right to tell any artist, who justifiably wants to OWN their software licenses, that they should find a different line of work because they don't want their business model to be forced to change in order to adapt to a corporate decision which is so patently disturbing.
To be clear, I have no objection if someone wants to opt to SAAS. But people who don't want to do that should not be forced to that or put in a situation where the software they depend upon is taken away because they can't afford the monthly payments, especially ten years later after they have invested enough for several perpetual licenses. What about 20 years later, they've spent $12,000 and wont be able to use the software after next month if they quit paying?
You see, when you think about this problem 20 years out ( I have to, I've been in this industry since the 80s) you start to see that Adobe's decision here reveals that are really escalating what they perceive as the monetary value of their software to be much higher, astronomically higher, than today. Sure it only cost you $50 dollars a month. You are hypothetically 20 now. Do you really want to pay Adobe $24,000 by the time you turn 60, assuming the price stays the same for 40 years? Retirement gets here quicker than you think.
Before anyone argues, "well you can just use CS6 forever then", this is only possible if you are able to keep your hardware running forever. I can't load CS on any machine after a specific Windows upgrade. End of story. What I have runs because the machine still runs. When the machine dies, CS is toast.
Adobe knows they are strictly imposing obsolescence for anyone who goes that route. It may take a year, 2 years, 5 years, whatever...but eventually all perpetual licenses will fail to run. Either the hardware dies or the OS changes. What happens in 10 years when the motherboard fails and Cloud wont read CS6 files anymore? What is that business owner going to do? All their files and assets will just be sitting there on backup discs or HD, but nothing to read it? So yes, everyone will eventually be forced to the Cloud if they want to use Adobe software. There will be no walking CS files to CS2, CS2 files to CS3, CS4 files to CS6 to resurrect a client's old file. All the old CC software will be gone, because it will be constantly updated. No legacy paths will exist or can be created. Its the Adobe vision, constant change which the customer will have little control over.
There is also the issue, what about everyone who has never owned Adobe software after they quit selling CS6. What are they going to do, what will be their choice? For them it will be rent if they want to use Adobe. That will be their only choice. Adobe will have forced that hand on them.
Yellamokara wrote: I use the software for personal use. For me personally the subscription model makes it economically feasible - without CC the impact of making that big upfront payment of the perpetual license was a deal breaker. |
For some people it will. Easy to get into, potentially easy to get out of. A lot of inexperienced artists or hobbyists are going to try it. Are trying it. It makes sense for them. But what happens when they stop re-upping the monthly payment. The newness wears off, they find its not what they thought it was, they find they like accounting more than color theory, pig farming more than histograms. They downgrade from the fulll CC to just PS, or they just exit. What happens when this rush slows to a crawl?
What will happen is that the professionals who want perpetual licenses will leave Adobe, people for who the Cloud fit well will settle in, and in huge chunks the newbies embrace Cloud. What happens when a sizable chunk of these folks "trying it out" move on to other things? Where is Adobe going to make up the shortfall? What happens if this dream of turning Adobe into the first most popular graphics SAAS provider fails? The first and most logical solution will be to impose back rent.
You see, Adobe has bit off more than they can chew. Why do I say that? For this gamble to work, for it to ultimately have been truly successful, to successfully transform the way everyone gets their software and enjoy this radical transformation, they would have had to make every customer happy and keep competition at bay. But they didn't, they did just the opposite.
First they pissed off their most loyal customer base. In spades. Second The CGI development world is like a pool of sharks. Theres an odor of something in the water right now that Adobe's competitors are racing to exploit. So Adobe successfully sets up a chain reaction where its most loyal professional customers are running away, it competition is energized for the first time in decades that it might have a chance to once again compete with the giant, the angry customers are being magnetically drawn to this competition, and filling the vacuum that remains is a large share of the user base that finds the Cloud very appealing, and many of these people openly admit that the cost of the old perpetual licensing model was out of their reach.
Why was it out of reach? Why would they see it as too expensive? If most of them are going to be long term loyal graphics proffessional customers why were they unable to save up the money to afford the tools that all the previously loyal customers purchased? I'm not making an accusation or stereotyping anyone, but i am asking a gravely serious marketing question that Adobe should have asked itself.
Why would they push to market to a customer segment who have openly admitted here that commitment to the software is unimportant? That subscribe, cancel, subscribe, cancel, subcribe, cancel sounds like fun!? Seriously? This is the target market Adobe has discovered they are embracing and they openly admit they are not turning back?
Again to be clear, I have no objection if any artist wants to go Cloud. I think for some people it will be a Godsend. But I don't think its going to be the panacea that most think it will be and I don't want it. Worst, I think that Adobe is embracing accounting and noteriety over some of it's customers wishes. Accounting numbers matter, indeed they do, but when numbers matter more than loyal customers? Your customers are the numbers!
But then you seriously have to ask the question why would they turn their back on so many customers? So I ask anyone about to jump to the Cloud, is that what you want from your SAAS service provider? If they can, and are happy to do this to the people willing to pay up front, what are they going to demand of you?
Joey
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