I'm not surprised - given the snow passing in front of his face.
But what's the point of using auto face tracking here? You could draw a simple pen based mask and animate it manually for this entire clip in about 30 seconds.
Looking up that plugin, the demo video seems to use detailed face tracking, not outline face tracking as your test. Do you get usable results with detailed tracking?
I did use detailed tracking, and the result was attached above. This makes the face wiggle all over the place (well, they're small wiggles, but very noticeable)
Applying some basic colour corrections - a basic luninance curve, to reveal more detail in the face helps a little in getting a less jittery mask, but other than that, I think you're out of luck for generating an automatic mask.
The face is only a small part of the frame, the footage is compressed - both of which seriously work against getting a good face track.
The footage looks like it was downloaded from the internet or ripped from a DVD. I'm almost sure you don't own or have permission to use the original visually lossless footage. MPEG compression is very lossy, usually only has one original frame for every 2, 3, or 4 interpreted frames, the color is compressed in blocks of at least 4 pixels and a whole bunch of other things that are hard for the eye to see are going on in the footage. It is no wonder that face tracking isn't giving you a perfect track. You could try stabilizing the footage and adding some color correction and enhancement before trying to do the face tracking, but generally, the better the quality of the footage the better the track.
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